Us Recession 2024 Forecast. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2024, 45% by the second half of 2024 and 60% by the first half of 2025. Questions about potential recession risks and the inflation outlook will likely persist.

Inflation will not fall to target on a sustained expansion. View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.